 "Photo: Nicole Borghard")
The 2008 presidential election will be one of the most important political events of our lives. For the first time since 1928, there is no incumbent president or vice president in the race. The next president will undeniably face great challenges: the mess in Iraq, maintaining our supremacy in a globalizing economy, an ever-growing deficit, and 47 million Americans without health insurance. Our entire nation has an interest in the outcome of this presidential election.
That being said, the race will hinge on the state of Iowa.
Through chance and tradition, Iowa's caucuses are the first electoral event of the primary season. One cold Iowa night this January (the date is still tentative at this point), thousands of Iowans will arrive at their caucus sites and decide their favorite candidate. From each of the 1,800 individual caucuses that take place that night, Iowa voters will nominate delegates to their state convention, who will then send delegates to the national convention (Democrats in Denver, Republicans in Minneapolis).
So why is Iowa important? The state only sends 56 delegates to the convention, out of 4,366 for the nation - hardly a big number. Iowa is significant because the day after the Iowa caucus, every newspaper, news channel, and magazine across the country will lead off with "________ wins Iowa!" That candidate is an immediate proven winner. The average bump in the polls for the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses is 20 percent. The candidate can ride that wave of support directly into New Hampshire a week later, then on to Nevada and South Carolina.
Granted, none of these are delegate-rich states. However, on Feb. 5, 20 states vote. If you're from Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, or Utah, you vote on Feb. 5. The momentum captured from Iowa will directly affect the outcome of this delegate-loaded day.
Iowa's caucuses are odd little experiments in democracy. There's a system, and the candidates who are best at working that system will have a much better chance.
Caucuses are anything but primaries. Imagine having a representative from every campaign in the voting booth, attempting to persuade you that their candidates are the best.
Caucuses usually last over an hour, and there is a lot of shuffling of people from campaign to campaign. At the end, they take the percent of people pledged to each viable candidate (those with the support of over 15 of those present) and elect delegates based on those numbers.
Iowans expect to experience candidates firsthand. Candidates have been all over the state, visiting town halls in Dubuque, Des Moines, Coralville, Waverly, and Sioux City. People can ask them one-on-one questions, and make their judgments based on personal experience, not media coverage or reputation. Iowans take this responsibility very seriously, and wait a long time to make up their mind.
Iowa also allows candidates who may not be doing well nationally to concentrate their resources. Both of the current leaders in polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers, Barack Obama (+4 percent) and Mitt Romney (+8 percent), are losing by double digits in national polls. Each candidate has invested significant resources in the state, and are beginning to see these efforts pay off. If they can hold on to their lead through the caucuses, national opinion polls will change rapidly. To those who doubt this, remember John Kerry. He was in single-digits nationally until winning Iowa, and afterwards coasted to the Democratic nomination.
The media stresses national polls because they are an easy indicator, and allow for broad generalizations about how America is feeling. However, America does not nominate candidates - states do. Iowa, first among states, is more important than any national opinion poll.
The candidate with the financial resources, enthusiasm, and smart strategy to make a big push in Iowa will benefit greatly, and send all their rivals scrambling.
So while you're listening to the media chatter away about front-runners and horse races and inevitability, just remember that the next president will be one who can compete in the cornfields, not just play in the polls.
Joshua Darr is a Heights staff columnist. He welcomes comments at jdarr@bcheights.com.
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