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Finally, after months of campaigning, debating, and fundraising, the 2008 presidential election is less than a year away. While candidates still have time to make substantial gains in the polls and in the critical swing states of Iowa and New Hampshire, the political atmosphere is beginning to settle. Democrats enter the campaign with powerful advantages but face skepticism because of the perceived vulnerabilities of front-runner Hillary Clinton (N.Y.). Republicans, seemingly behind the eight-ball, remain confident that this year's election will indeed be close.
A recent poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News shows that Americans have turned away from President Bush and have begun to support the domestic issues of his adversaries. The majorities believes the Iraq war can't be won and want most U.S. troops withdrawn by the dawn of a new president's term in 2009. Offsetting that demand for change in the presidential contest are reservations about Sen. Clinton's truthfulness and ideology, even as Americans applaud her political experience and leadership qualities. The result: a virtual deadlock with leading Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani when the two are matched up.
Clinton's rivals in both parties are moving to exploit the doubts revealed by the survey, which was conducted after last week's Democratic debate at which she faced accusations of evasiveness and double talk from both Barack Obama (Ill.) and John Edwards. Giuliani has maintained an aggressive stance toward his in-state rival for the White House. While promoting his anti-terror credentials with tough talk on Iran, the former New York City mayor slammed Clinton for displaying "the worst of the Clinton years" by equivocating in the debate on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.
"If you think a question about driver's licenses is a tough question, a gotcha question, you're not ready for [Iranian leader Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad," Giuliani told the crowd at a New Hampshire town hall meeting a few days ago. By 50 percent to 35 percent, the poll shows, Americans prefer that a Democrat gets elected to succeed Bush next November. In a direct match-up of leading candidates, however, that margin shrinks to 46 percent for Clinton and 45 percent for Giuliani.
While polls indicate public sentiment and candidates' likability, several swing states hold the key to the White House. New Hampshire, for example, became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. Likewise, Iowa has been a true battleground state. It went for Al Gore in 2000 and George W. Bush in 2004; but, both times, the margin of victory was small, making it a pivotal destination.
Though Democrats recently gained complete control of the state legislature, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for Republicans.
Colorado makes a similar case. Strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention to issues such as immigration reform, labor union support, and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state.
However, Republicans still claim their title on this state because of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative issues.
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