Without Election Central, I know that a lot of you were starved for political news this summer. If it makes you feel any better, you didn't miss a whole lot. There was a lot of talk about celebrity, homes, Germans, arugula, Hawaii, and Paris Hilton. It was as serious as it sounds.
Candidates rarely win or lose an election in the summer. One exception, and clear model for the McCain campaign, is our most recent election in 2004. The Bush campaign managed to peg John Kerry in the summer as an out-of-touch flip-flopping elitist who may have been overstating his military credentials. True or not, these allegations managed to stick with Kerry into the fall.
This summer, John McCain's camp aggressively tried to paint Barack Obama as out-of-touch, flip-flopping, and (you guessed it) elitist during the summer. They had one additional "asset" that Bush's campaign could not have dreamed of: Barack Obama's worldwide appeal. The McCain campaign released the now-infamous advertisement "Celeb," which visually compared Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, and asked, "But is he ready to lead?" Any time Paris Hilton becomes a recurring political topic, something is seriously wrong. Such was this summer.
Needless to say, the Obama campaign was not happy with the coverage this ad received. Neither were Hilton's parents, who are big-time McCain donors. Coverage of the ad dominated the news, from Entertainment Tonight to TMZ to Politico, for several weeks. The election became a referendum on Barack Obama, who was severely overexposed during the month of July thanks to his trip through Europe and the Middle East. His one-week vacation to Hawaii (his home state) just before Russia's invasion of Georgia did not help either: McCain got to play commander-in-chief, while the only stories coming out about Obama concerned shaved ice and bodysurfing.
Polls responded to this shift. The end of August was a rough time for the Obama campaign: Every major national poll tightened, and McCain even took a brief lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (46-44 percent, Aug. 25). The next two big events of the campaign, the announcements of running mates and the conventions, took on added significance for Democrats because Obama needed to pull himself out of his summer rut.
Obama chose Senator Joe Biden of Delaware to be his running mate, and in doing so added 36 years of experience and foreign policy gravitas to his ticket. Biden is the current chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and is on a first-name basis with many of the world's leaders. He's also popular among seniors, and nobody in Washington would dream of questioning his credentials. With two failed presidential campaigns under his belt (1988 and 2008), and a penchant for impolitic statements and verbose answers, Biden also presented some potential setbacks.
Though Obama clearly likes and respects Biden, some commentators were quick to call the pick defensive because Biden fills in some of Obama's weaknesses. Initial polls showed the American public to be unimpressed, which put added pressure on the Democratic National Convention. By all accounts, the DNC was a smashing success for Obama. His acceptance speech last Thursday at Invesco Field went off without a hitch and was well-received by the media. TIME's Mark Halperin, who runs thepage.time.com, who usually views such speeches with a critical eye, gave Obama an A plus. The American people seem to have done the same: Obama hit 50 percent in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll for the first time on Tuesday (50-42 percent), and most major national polls since the convention give Obama at least a six-point lead.
This resurgence seems to have disoriented the McCain campaign. Political observers were dumbstruck last Friday when John McCain introduced Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate, after apparently only meeting her one time. Since most of the experienced members of the political media cannot fully explain this pick, I won't try. McCain clearly likes her and sees a bit of himself in her biography. She has the image of someone who is not afraid to buck her party and take on senior politicians in her state (such as currently indicted Senator Ted Stevens). She could help attract women to the McCain campaign, she's young and energetic, and she has a beautiful family with a compelling story.
She's a complete unknown on the national scene, however, and it's clear that the McCain campaign did not completely "vet" her. Over the last few days, the media has taken a critical tone with Palin in the search for information about her past. It remains to be seen whether anything will stick, or if Palin will emerge from the GOP convention as a popular new face for the party.
After the up-and-down silly season that was this summer, John McCain finds himself where Barack Obama was only 10 days ago: historically low in the polls, without a VP bounce, and betting the farm on his convention. Obama's bet paid off, at least in the short term. Tonight, at 10 p.m., McCain gets his chance. With only 61 days left until Nov. 4, he will not get many more.
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