Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign can only be described as an American tragedy. It had all the right elements: hubris, fate, and cataclysmic failure.
Love it or hate it, we do not have a national primary in the United States. An elite club of states rules the process and guard their role fiercely against any other states who wish to usurp their authority.
Unlike previous years, however, Iowa and New Hampshire had to fight for their privileged political lives. Michigan and Florida led an all-out assault of states challenging the Iowa-New Hampshire juggernaut. Michigan flaunted convention by moving to Jan. 15, and Florida broke all the rules by moving up to Jan. 29.
Twenty-two other states moved up to Feb. 5, looming on the horizon as a day when over 1,000 convention delegates will be at stake. Rudy began the race soaring in national polls. The media was abuzz with lingering positive feelings for "America's Mayor," who so deftly handled post-Sept. 11 New York City and garnered TIME's 2001 "Person of the Year" honors. His moderate conservatism was perceived as being the wounded Republican Party's only shot at beating Hillary Clinton in November.
National polls remained strong, and for most of the year Giuliani was by all accounts the presumptive nominee. America's Mayor had a problem, however: America doesn't choose presidents, states do. Iowa and New Hampshire were not going down without a fight, and the states' primaries moved up to Jan. 3 and Jan. 8, respectively. Iowa Republicans are a very different breed than New York City Republicans, and Rudy always knew that his socially liberal, anti-abortion and pro-gay rights views would not go over well there. The campaign hesitated, caught between a rock and a hard place: Compete hard in Iowa, where they were likely to lose, or pull out of the state altogether and risk conceding some momentum to the Iowa winner? The Giuliani campaign decided to avoid the Hawkeye State. Along with John McCain, Rudy pulled out of the much-hyped Ames Straw Poll in August. The candidate rarely appeared in the state, preferring to raise money around the nation and hold town hall meetings in New Hampshire, a northern state with less socially conservative leanings. Rudy would surely have a better chance there.
Unfortunately, the national frontrunner ran into two big obstacles named Mitt Romney and John McCain. Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and proud owner of a vacation home on Lake Winnipesauke, was a well-known commodity. John McCain is beloved by the fiercely independent Granite State for his "maverick" style. McCain beat George W. Bush there by 19 percent in 2000, but, due to a complete campaign meltdown in July, was perceived to be weak this year. McCain threw his entire campaign's weight into New Hampshire, and the polls soon turned around and showed him gaining strength.
Faced with this difficulty in New Hampshire, Giuliani once again turned tail and left. So where to go now? Michigan, Mitt Romney's home state, was not exactly friendly. Nevada and South Carolina had the same social problems as Iowa. The national frontrunner suddenly found himself a homeless and helpless bystander during much of December and January. There was, however, one last glittering ray of "sunshine." A win in Florida, coming a week before Super Tuesday, would put him back on solid footing going into the delegate-rich states where he had been leading all year. All would be well if Rudy could take Florida. Plus, the weather is nicer - it's January, after all.
So Rudy '08 moved down south. Surely, by concentrating its resources and appealing to the snowbirds and moderates, the campaign could win the crucial state. Before Guliani knew what hit him, Mike Huckabee won Iowa. John McCain came back to win decisively in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney took Michigan and Nevada, and McCain won a narrow race in South Carolina. Nobody spoke about Rudy Giuliani for months on end, and everyone seemed to remember why they used to like John McCain.
Florida came and went on Tuesday, another McCain victory. Rudy struggled to a distant third. His gambit failed. America's mayor would not be America's president.
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