PSA talk attracts students, faculty

Civic-minded students filled the Higgins auditorium to discuss the upcoming election with faculty members as part of an event put on by the Political Science Association (PSA). The event, which was called "New Hampshire to November: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of the 2004 Presidential Campaigns," featured professors Dennis Hale, Marc Landy, and Kay Schlozman of the political science department.

Each of the three professors gave a brief overview of their thoughts on the election thus far, but the vast majority of time was reserved for a question and answer session. Members of the PSA executive board moderated the discussion.

War in Iraq

One student asked the panelists what role the war in Iraq will play in the election. Hale began by labeling as a mistake the focus on weapons of mass destruction as a justification for war in Iraq.

"The president has always stressed the role of regime change, both in Iraq and Afghanistan, as a tool for combating religious fundamentalism," said Hale. "The issue of why we sought regime change in Iraq is the issue dividing the campaigns.

Landy viewed the emphasis on weapons of mass destruction as a political move.

"The effort to gain the support of the [U.N.] Security Council was less because Bush cared about the Security Council and more because he cared about the support of Blair and Powell. And frankly, as bad as the fallout has been for him because of the lack of weapons of mass destruction, both men still support him."

The Mary Cheney controversy

Another student asked for the panelists' viewpoint of the controversy surrounding Kerry's discussion of the Cheneys' lesbian daughter.

"There are two interpretations, the good interpretation and the bad interpretation," said Hale. "The good interpretation is that they're being nice to Dick Cheney, they just wanted to say something nice about him and his family. The bad interpretation is that they're trying to remind uniformed voters that his daughter is a lesbian in the hopes that they won't vote for him. Both of these interpretations are consistent with the facts."

Schlozman saw more possible explanations for the remark.

"It could be all those things at once: a cheap shot, an attempt to dramatize the division within the Republican ranks, as well as an appeal to those on the other side of the gay rights issue that there is nothing wrong with this."

The primary system

Joe Sabia, A&S '06, asked if the drawn-out primary system creates a "tedium of politics that disengages people from the process."

"Sometimes a 14-inning ballgame is boring, and sometimes it's very exciting," said Hale, using as an analogy a subject that undoubtedly was not far from the minds of the baseball fans present. "51 million people watched that third debate. If you had said to me 18 months ago after this long, tedious campaign, that 51 million people were going to watch that debate, with two baseball games, I wouldn't have believed you. Yes, the system is too long and too expensive, but boy, has the public paid attention."

The Nader effect

One interested student inquired as to what effect Nader will have on the Bush and Kerry campaigns.

"I think Nader may cost Kerry a state or two," said Hale. "The chance that he will have zero impact on the election, given how close it is right now, is very unlikely. I think he potentially could cost Kerry the election."

"The presumption in your question actually turns out to be historically wrong," said Schlozman. "We've had lots of third party candidates in our history, but only extremely rarely do they have the effect of throwing the election. One of the last times it was demonstrably so, and I'm certainly not including all examples, was in 1848 when the Free Soilers disproportionately drew support away from Lewis Cass of Michigan, and swung the election to Zachary Taylor, who was a slavery supporter."

"But it certainly did happen in 2000, and I think that Democrats are rightfully concerned that it might happen again," continued Schlozman. "In 2000, prognosticators got the scenario wrong. They thought that the Nader effect would be greatest in the Pacific Northwest, when in fact, it was in Florida."

Multilateralism

"I was wondering what you thought about John Kerry's plan to try to win back allies in the world," asked a student. "It seems he's banking on the assumption that countries will change their minds when there's a new administration in power, and I was wondering how plausible you thought that was," she continued.

"I think that for the Germans and the French, for whom the issue is most salient, is that they have rather well worked out positions that play well at home and that make sense in terms of how they view their positions in the world," said Landy.

Schlozman disagreed slightly with that contention.

"Just to take another position on that, it would seem to me that there are a lot of issues that haven't been discussed much in the campaign that have made old allies angry," said Schlozman. "One example of this is what happened at Abu Ghraib, which really hasn't been discussed but is very troubling to many Europeans."

Bush or Kerry?

The final question was one that every political junkie loves to weigh in on: Who will win the election, Bush or Kerry?

"I read the polls obsessively," said Landy, laughing, "and if the people who the pollsters identify as likely voters end up voting, Bush will win a narrow victory. There is, however, this extraordinary phenomenon of Moveon.org and these other groups who have been quite actively been recruiting and registering young people."

Schlozman refused to name either candidate, but offered some insight into projecting a winner.

"I have been teaching elections in American history long enough to know not to answer a question like that," said Schlozman. "I still think that either candidate has a plausible chance at winning."