Middle East expert sees end to nuclear stand-off

Though the Middle East remains a one-dimensional symbol of political instability in the minds of some Western observers, Banafsheh Keynoush has dedicated her career to examining the issues at hand. In her Oct. 18 lecture at Boston College, she spoke on the balance of power in the region and the roles of the two most powerful countries in it; Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Keynoush, a native of Iran, works as a Farsi-English interpreter for CNN and recently served as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's translator on his recent trip to Columbia University. Prior to serving as Ahmadinejad's translator, Keynoush worked for the United Nations, the Asia Foundation, and the World Bank.

Drawing from her studies on Middle East foreign policy and law, Keynoush primarily focused on Iran's and Saudi Arabia's response to the conflict in Iraq.

Keynoush said that Iran is a rising power, shifting Middle East relations as it challenges the authority of the Saudi royal family. Many smaller states in the region support the rise of Iranian power to balance a perceived Saudi Arabian hegemony.

The rise of Iran has factored into the possible royal succession in the Saudi royal family. Part of Saudi Arabia believes that it is essential to keep pace with Iran militarily and follow American policy. Others, however, believe that the royal family should cut its ties to America and remain pragmatic on Iran's capabilities. "The new generation believes that the kingdom [Saudi Arabia] must remain distanced from Washington, D.C.," Keynoush said.

While Saudi Arabia may be wary of Iran's growing power within the region, the royal family sees opportunity. Saudi Arabia wants Iran to use its increasing influence to help reduce regional tension.

The war in Iraq has led to some debate between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Keynoush said. Both nations want a stable Iraq more than anything else and are concerned for the possibility of a spillover of sectarian violence. Iran wants a pluralistic Iraq - an Iraq run by the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. This balanced government would reduce the threat of any one group going to war with its neighbor, Iran.

Iran has taken an interesting tactic in dealing with Iraq, investing nearly $1.8 billion into reconstructing the Iraqi infrastructure, in an effort to win what Keynoush calls, "the respect of the common people."

This tactic, however, is not new. Following the removal of the Taliban in 2001, Iran used the same tactic in Afghanistan, helping Iran increase its influence and profile in the region.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has no defined policy towards Iraq. The royal family's past support for Saddam Hussein has also weakened their credibility within the country.

The one constant in Saudi involvement is that it is driven by Islamic fundamentals, and the royal family is committed to keeping Sunnis in the political process. The Saudi policy, Keynoush said, is "based upon the promotion of Islamic ideology."

She then offered a solution to the insurgency in Iraq, saying that the only way the U.S. can withdraw its troops without Iraq falling into civil war is to use the capabilities of both Saudi Arabia and Iran as regional superpowers and Islamic states. She said, "I believe the path to withdrawal is recognizing the role Iran and Saudi Arabia can play in Iraq."

The final point Keynoush tackled was Iran's nuclear ambitions. "The choice to pursue nuclear capabilities [in the minds of the royal family] is a rational choice," She added that the decision to pursue a nuclear weapon is, "a self-fulfilling prophecy that a U.S.-Iranian confrontation is inevitable."

Keynoush says that Iran's intentions with a nuclear weapon are defensive, and that Iran is using it as a deterrent more from Israel's nuclear capabilities than from the U.S.

The lecture was ended on an optimistic note, when Keynoush said, "The nuclear issue is completely resolvable and reversible," and that even though Iran won't back down, "Iran wants peace, Iran wants direct flights from Tehran to New York."