 "Photo: patrick fouhy")
"Three dates will define the modern era - September 11, 2001, November 2004, and 2008," said William Kristol.
Kristol, founder of The Weekly Standard and one of the giants of modern conservative thought, was referring to the terror attacks on the United States, the reelection of President George W. Bush, and the president to be elected in 2008. The standing-room only crowd heard him discuss a range of subjects Wednesday, from changes in the Supreme Court to the current political landscape in an event titled "An Evening With Bill Kristol."
His presentation focused on these three periods of modern history and the importance of the Sept. 11 shift.
"9/11 was a historical moment," said Kristol. "The decade of the '90s - the decade of peace and prosperity - ended on this date. We're only four years into this era, and it's difficult to predict exactly what shape it will take."
To Kristol, American politics have been fairly straightforward.
"The politics of the last 70 years were pretty simple," he said. "The Democrats won nearly every presidential contest from 1932 to 1968, and controlled Congress. From 1968 to 2004, we've had what political scientists call a 'rolling realignment,' meaning political power is shifting."
For the third date, November 2008, Kristol speculated as to what that year's presidential contest could bring. He said it was especially important because it will be "the first real referendum in a post-9/11 world."
What is equally important, he said, is that it's wide open. "This is the first presidential election in 56 years when there's not an incumbent or a vice president that will be running for reelection," he said. "It's rare to have two wide open primaries, which is what we'll have in 2008.
"Despite what some Democrats think about Karl Rove's Machiavellian machinations, I don't think he'll change the Constitution in time for Bush to run for a third term," Kristol said. He added that Dick Cheney is unlikely to make a presidential bid.
"McCain and Giuliani, in the polls, are the frontrunners," he said. "Both are very impressive people. They're also very controversial with the primary voters for obvious reasons."
Kristol cautioned that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), widely believed to have a lock on the Democratic nomination in 2008, may not be such a sure bet.
"On the Democratic side, everyone assumes that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee," he said. "But I have a feeling, and this is just a hunch, that people are conceding the nomination too early."
Kristol noted that there are several Democratic governors that could make a plausible run at the presidency. He added that other non-officeholders are clearly interested in a 2008 bid.
"Kerry wants to run again, Edwards wants to run again, Al Gore wants to run again, Howard Dean wants to run again," he said. "This is a Republican wish list."
As for Bush's currently low approval ratings, Kristol said "he has nowhere to go but up."
Kristol also allowed for a lengthy question and answer period. In response to an early question, he explained the importance of the recent Supreme Court nomination of Samuel Alito Jr.
"The question of the court's composition has increased in importance in recent decades because the court has exerted control over more issues," said Kristol. "Still, people are overestimating the transformation of the court. Most of these justices do not believe in overturning precedents. It's easy to exaggerate how fast things move."
Kristol often displayed a lighter side when answering questions. In response to a question from a member of the Boston College Democrats, he said that he wished his party "the best of luck - 49 percent of the vote in all elections."
The crowd also laughed when he explained what it was like being the "token conservative" at Harvard, where he taught in the '80s and is again a member of the faculty. "They always like to have one," he said, "so students know what they look like - especially when they go out to get a job."
He also related voting against local icon Tip O'Neill in the 1984 congressional elections. He said he asked his wife over breakfast the morning after the election how many votes the Republican running against O'Neill received. His wife couldn't find any Republicans - but did find someone of a different political persuasion.
"It turned out I voted for a Communist," he said, laughing.
Kristol said he moved to Virginia a little over a decade ago to be closer to the capital, as well as for a different political climate. Forces beyond his control thwarted the latter effort, though.
"Now, ironically, we have a Democratic governor in Virginia and a Republican governor in Massachusetts," he said.
Before the talk, Kristol remembered sitting in on courses at BC while a graduate student at Harvard. "I've always had a real respect for BC as an educational institution," he said. "I'm friends with a number of the faculty here."
The event was sponsored by the BC Republicans. Kristol recently published a collection of stories from his magazine called The Weekly Standard: A Reader: 1995-2005.
Be the first to comment on this article!