Shifting demographics will affect colleges

As the number of applications to Boston College rose to an all-time high of 31,000 this year, many members of the BC population expect it to increase as the profile of the school continues to rise. According to data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), however, the number of high school graduates nationwide is going to decline due to normal population shifts.

A recent article in the Chronicle of Higher Education stated that this trend in decreasing population is not distributed evenly among demographics. Due to the decrease in population, there will be a large shift in the composition of the collegiate student body as a whole in America over the next seven years. More specifically, this means that there will be record numbers of minority students who are able to attend a university in the upcoming seven years.

The population goes through periods of highs and lows in birthrates, although it exhibits an overall increasing trend. It appears that over the next seven years the population of high school graduates will be declining, and then in 2015 it will go through another period of growth.

As the numbers for overall high school graduate rates are broken down, however, it becomes clear that some racial demographics are actually increasing their high school graduation numbers, leading to not only a decrease in the numbers of college entrants but also a redistribution of the racial makeup of those same college entrants.

It appears that while over the next seven years the number of white and black high school graduates will be decreasing, in some cases by double-digit percentages, the numbers of Hispanic and Asian graduates will actually be increasing. This will cause an enormous redistribution among the racial makeup of college campuses. The members of WICHE predict that nearly half of all high school graduates will be minority students by the year 2022.

Some wonder if the decline in the numbers of high school graduates will make getting into college less competitive in the coming years, possibly leading to a decrease in the quality of students. However, results from another WICHE survey demonstrate that in many areas, school districts are taking measures to make sure that the overall level of education in high schools is continually improving.

The reason for the increase in the numbers of some racial demographics within the population and a decrease in others remains somewhat unclear for many, but there are some potential contributing factors to this trend.

These factors include the increasing minority percentage of the U.S. population, the increasing numbers of minority students who successfully graduate from high school and go to college, and the increased efforts of school boards to improve minority graduation rates.

As the white percentage of the college population declines, there is an opportunity for the minority population to be represented on college campuses at the same level that it is represented in the American population.

Some students see this shift as an improvement in the student body at BC. "Diversification of the student population creates a better environment for students," said Ben Lawson, A&S '11. The traditionally homogenous population at BC has long been a sticking point with some students who believe that there should be a more diverse learning environment.

This natural population shift will help efforts to diversify the racial makeup of the student population. This new data demonstrates that as the physical campus here at BC changes drastically with the Master Plan, the makeup of the student population could also change dramatically.