Finally, the Bush administration's hyperbolic claims regarding Iran and its purported program to create weapons of mass destruction have been debunked. This is wonderful news - like an early Christmas present for all rationally minded Americans. Now in the throes of final exam week and Boston's own splendid strain of seasonal affective disorder, we can at least catch our breaths, rest for a couple of moments, and let out huge sighs of relief that the so-called imminent war with Iran - "World War III," according to Bush - has little to no chance of going down. That, in my opinion, is a fabulous present. Our audacious - or reckless - president won't be able to use our soldiers, in the words of the late Kurt Vonnegut, "like toys a rich kid got for Christmas."
The lowdown on Iran was released Monday afternoon via a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). You can check it out at www.odni.gov. Here's a quick run through of the report's "Key Judgments."
The NIE asserts "with high confidence" that - contrary to the contentions of Bush and especially of Dick Cheney - Iran ended its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003. In addition, it says that Iran's halt was "in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran's previously undeclared nuclear work." Nonetheless, with moderate-to-high confidence, Iran is probably "keeping open" the nuclear weapons option.
Until the fall of 2003, Iran's military was working to develop nuclear weapons. (This isn't new information.) Now it is solely exploring a civilian uranium enrichment program. The NIE admits with "moderate-to-high confidence" that Iran is not currently in the possession of a nuclear weapon. The earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but this is unlikely. The reality is that Iran won't be capable of producing enough until sometime between 2010 and 2015, but probably closer to 2015, when technical and programmatic difficulties are taken into account.
2008 Woodie Awards
