Mining has become a focal point of the Trump administration’s agenda. It has continuously emphasized the significance of the natural resource industry since January, evidenced in both the proposed Ukraine deal and the potential acquisition of Greenland. Both acquisitions are being evaluated not only for their strategic significance to the United States, but also for the immense mineral value embedded in their land. These high mineral values serve as a negotiating tool that President Donald Trump will use to arrange a purchase price of minerals to the most advantageous level for the United States.
The Ukraine deal has been stalled due to delays from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. It is expected, however, to re-establish U.S. brokering power in Europe and position the United States as a key player in the rare earth-mineral industry.
Both opportunities were halted due to disagreements with foreign actors and rising tensions within the international order. Nevertheless, the President continued to pursue his objective of disrupting China’s dominance in the rare earth-mineral mining, production, and export markets. This past week, Trump signed an executive order directing the United States to expand its capacity for deep-sea mining in international waters. The administration is attempting to hedge its bet on the Ukraine deal and the acquisition of Greenland, the latter of which was indefinitely delayed.
The Logic Behind the Executive Order
The signed executive order outlines an expedited review process for future permits related to deep-sea mining in the Pacific Ocean. These permits fall under the 1980 Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act, which grants Washington the authority to conduct drilling activities outside national jurisdiction lines in the oceans. Although the International Seabed Authority—a U.N. agency—oversees mining in international waters, it has failed to provide clear regulations due to internal disputes. As a result, U.S. jurisdiction takes precedence in this case due to the lack of clarity from the international community.
China holds a dominant position in the rare earth-mineral industry, which the Trump administration has identified as a strategic vulnerability for the U.S. Additionally, Beijing’s rapid growth in military capacity, GDP, government operations, and foreign relations has been challenging the United States’ dominance. Washington must carefully navigate the current transitional period in the international order if the U.S. hopes to retain its credibility and leadership role on the global stage.
Rare earth minerals are the cornerstone of electric devices, ranging from cell phones to modern vehicles. This executive order specifically targets copper and nickel, which have seen a dramatic rise in demand over the past decade. According to the International Energy Agency, demand for copper is expected to quadruple by 2040, while demand for nickel is predicted to rise by 91 percent by 2035. Currently, China accounts for 60 percent of global mining production of minerals, such as copper and nickel, and operates 90 percent of the world’s processing and refining machinery for these resources.
For example, electric vehicles require two to three and a half times more copper than traditional combustion engine vehicles. With states like California aiming to permit only the sale of zero-emission vehicles by 2035, Washington must secure control over the flow of critical materials necessary to produce such clean energy technologies.
Market Interest and Investment Opportunities
The Metals Company has already seen a boost in its stock price following the executive order’s announcement. The company is projected to continue benefiting throughout the remainder of the president’s term if it can secure contracts to drill over the next three and a half years. Additionally, its stock could rise significantly again if it files for more permits to drill in other areas of the Pacific Ocean.
Impossible Metals, another U.S.-based company, is also expected to benefit from the executive order and its capacity to secure drilling permits. The rapid pace of permit approvals should serve as a near-term market indicator for mining companies, while the contracts awarded post-approval will be critical for long-term growth. The Trump administration is clearly looking decades ahead in its strategy to slow Beijing’s industrial expansion and preserve U.S. autonomy in technological and industrial innovation.
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